2020 Election HQ

One Day Out: Key Race Rating Changes

 
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One day before the election, here are the latest changes from our Campaign team's race ratings. Five races have been changed from leaning Republican to toss-up races, and eight races have been changed from toss-up races to leaning Democratic. 

See the rest of the rating changes, and make sure to track these important races through Election Day tomorrow. 

 

Electoral College


Alaska bubbles likely red to lean red

No Democrat has carried Alaska since Lyndon Johnson, but it’s impossible to ignore the private polling last month showing Biden closing in on Trump.

Georgia bubbles lean red to toss up grey

Both parties now see Georgia’s 16 electoral votes as fully up for grabs.

Indiana solid red to likely red bubbles

Mike Pence’s home state almost certainly isn’t going to flip. But it’s probably going to look more like 2012’s 10-point race than the Trump-Pence ticket’s yawning margin four years ago.

 

Senate Races


 

Georgia bubbles lean red to toss up grey

After a stock-trading controversy, an in-poor-taste joke about Kamala Harris’ first name and an overall swing in the electorate, GOP Sen. David Perdue no longer has a significant advantage over Democrat Jon Ossoff.

Virginia bubbles solid dark blue to likely lighter blue

This isn’t 2014. Polls show Democratic Sen. Mark Warner outpacing even Biden's wide lead in what is no longer a swing state.

 

House Races


California, District 48 bubbles toss up to lean blue

Harley Rouda began the cycle as one of the most endangered freshman Democrats in the House, but Republicans pulled out of the pricey district as it continued to move away from the Trump-era GOP.

Florida, District 18 bubbles likely red to lean red

GOP Rep. Brian Mast is still the favorite over Democrat Pam Keith, but it’s looking like another single-digit race along Florida’s Atlantic coast.

Florida, District 26 bubbles toss up to lean blue

After falling behind Republican Carlos Gimenez, freshman Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is now the favorite to win reelection in South Florida.

Georgia, District 7 bubbles toss up to lean blue

It was home to the nation’s closest House race in 2018, and GOP Rep. Rob Woodall saw the writing on the wall before he retired. This suburban Atlanta seat is racing toward Democrats.

Illinois, District 17 bubbles likely blue to lean blue

Democrats’ top super PAC spent $1 million in the final week of the election to boost Rep. Cheri Bustos, the chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee who represents a district Trump carried narrowly in 2016.

Iowa, District 3 bubbles toss up to lean blue

Of the three Iowa House seats Democrats won in 2018, the Des Moines-based 3rd District is the most urban and suburban — and, not coincidentally, the one Democrats are best-positioned to retain.

Iowa, District 4 bubbles solid red to likely red

Democrat J.D. Scholten nearly ousted GOP Rep. Steve King in 2018. It’s a much harder race now that state Sen. Randy Feenstra beat King in the Republican primary, but a little closer than a Solid Republican contest.

New Jersey, District 3 bubbles toss up to lean blue

Democratic Rep. Andy Kim is the favorite in this South Jersey district.

North Carolina, District 8 bubbles lean red to toss up grey

Both parties are fully engaged in this redrawn district, where GOP Rep. Richard Hudson faces a tough reelection campaign.

North Carolina, District 11 bubbles likely red to lean red

House Republicans’ top super PAC felt compelled to spend money to boost 25-year-old Madison Cawthorn in what should be a safe Republican district in western North Carolina.

Pennsylvania, District 1 bubbles lean red to toss up grey

GOP Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick survived the 2018 blue wave against a weak opponent. He again faces an underfunded Democrat, but the top of the ticket is dragging him down in Bucks County.

South Carolina, District 1 bubbles toss up to lean blue

Democratic Rep. Joe Cunningham is favored to win a second term against Republican Nancy Mace.

Texas, District 6 likely red to lean red

The entire Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex is shifting away from Republicans, and that includes GOP Rep. Ron Wright’s still-red-leaning seat.

Texas, District 21 bubbles lean red to toss up grey

In perhaps the marquee House race of the cycle, GOP Rep. Chip Roy’s once-significant advantage over Democrat Wendy Davis has eroded.

Texas, District 24 bubbles toss up to lean blue

Democrat Candace Valenzuela has emerged as the favorite to pick up a suburban Dallas open seat.

Virginia, District 2 bubbles toss up to lean blue

Democratic Rep. Elaine Luria ousted Republican Scott Taylor last cycle and is favored to beat him in the rematch.

Washington, District 3 bubbles likely red to lean red

Spending from both parties in this southwest Washington seat shows that GOP Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler is not as safe as the primary results would suggest.

 

Governor's Races


New Hampshire bubbles lean red to likely deeper red

Despite an overall Democratic advantage in other races, GOP Gov. Chris Sununu has maintained a large lead in the polls over Democrat Dan Feltes.

 


Ratings and analysis by POLITICO Pro Campaigns Editor Steven Shepard.

See something wrong with our data? Email interactives@politico.com.

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