How the megabill could hurt GOP reelection chances

Congressional Republicans are having trouble selling the One Big Beautiful Bill Act to their constituents. A new CBO analysis shows the measure would shift resources unevenly across income groups — leaving many lower-income households worse off while wealthier households see gains. That distribution could create political risks for lawmakers in competitive districts.

This exclusive POLITICO Pro Analysis breaks down how benefits and resources change across income levels, highlights which districts and lawmakers face the toughest challenges, and examines what the findings could mean for the political landscape ahead.

Why it matters:

• Explains how household resources shift under the bill, from tax changes to benefit reductions
• Highlights district-level differences that could influence lawmakers’ reelection prospects
• Provides data-driven insights to anticipate political and policy risks

Designed for policy professionals, this analysis delivers timely, data-backed insight to anticipate outcomes and shape strategy. Get exclusive access to this analysis and explore how POLITICO Pro equips you with authoritative reporting, advanced tools, and expert analysis across federal, state, and global policy.