Midterms 2022: navigate a shifting landscape

The Republican party is widely favored to win back at least one chamber of Congress at the start of the 2022 midterm cycle. But the renewed debates over abortion rights and gun control could give Democrats the much-needed midterm voter turnout boost.

In New Jersey the backlash to the Supreme Court’s decision on abortion could give the embattled two-term Democrat representative, Tom Malinowski, a chance to save his seat. Moreover, the Supreme Court decision also increases the stakes in state level races from governor to attorney general. Joe Cunningham, a former Democratic congressman for South Carolina, a reliable red state, is placing abortion at the center of his bid for the governor’s seat in the Palmetto State.

Even though abortion rights is a top issue on campaign ad spending, the economy and inflation remain key concerns for majority of the voters. Campaign Pro’s briefing on May 12 discussed how overturning Roe v. Wade could affect the midterms. Pro subscribers will have opportunities to hear directly from POLITICO reporters on key midterm policies throughout the election cycle and ask questions. The POLITICO Pro team will host the next midterms briefing, Campaign Pro Midterms Outlook, for subscribers on July 14.

In the wake of mass shootings in Uvalde, TX and Buffalo, New York, there’s an increasing chorus in Congress and in state legislatures to support stricter gun control legislations. Most of the uptick in support is among Republican and Independent voters. Campaign Pro’s latest poll digest breaks down the poll numbers and explains how this shifting public sentiment may impact the upcoming primaries. The polling digest is one of the five exclusive daily campaign deep dives from POLITICO Pro. These deep dives explore the inner workings of midterm races, fundraising, staffing, and advertising.

For Pro Premium subscribers, the newest DataPoint on gun rights lobbying shows the trends of lobbying spending from 1998 to March 2022 and the five groups spent approximately $1 million or more in 2021. DataPoints are data visualizations that explain complex policy topics and trends.

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