2020 Election HQ

15 Races to Watch

 
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As of 11/15/19

Introducing POLITICO’s 2020 Election Forecast: ratings for every national contest, from all 538 votes in the Electoral College, down to the 435 House districts — and everything in between.

We’ll be updating our rating throughout the year.

Senate Races


Alabama - Primary on March 3, 2020

Democrat Doug Jones is the most vulnerable senator from either party up in 2020. But Republicans first have to navigate a crowded primary field that includes former Sen. Jeff Sessions and the man Jones beat in the 2017 special election: defrocked former judge Roy Moore.

Georgia - Primary May 19, 2020

GOP Sen. David Perdue begins his first reelection campaign as a favorite, especially against a muddled Democratic field with no clear frontrunner.

Colorado - Primary June 30, 2020

Cory Gardner is Republicans' most vulnerable Senate incumbent and faces headwinds at the top of the ticket in a blue-leaning state. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee endorsed former Gov. John Hickenlooper, who still faces competitors in the primary.

North Carolina - Primary March 3, 2020

GOP Sen. Thom Tillis, facing a self-funding primary challenger, is embracing President Donald Trump after getting crosswise with the president over Trump's emergency declaration to build a wall along the southern border. Cal Cunningham, a former state legislator, is backed by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee but hasn't cleared the primary field.

Maine - Primary June 9, 2019

Republican Susan Collins has seen her vote share increase in each of her four Senate elections, culminating in 67 percent in 2014, when Democrats mounted only a nominal challenge. That won't be the case in 2020, with state House Speaker Sara Gideon preparing a strong bid. With the state's blue tint, Collins likely will need some crossover votes in order to win a fifth term.

Arizona - Primary August 4, 2020

Republican Martha McSally became the first Republican to lose a Senate race in Arizona since 1988 — only to then score an appointment to the state's other Senate seat. She will face Democrat Mark Kelly, the husband of former Rep. Gabby Giffords (D-Ariz.) and a prolific fundraiser. The special election in Arizona could go down as the most expensive Senate race in 2020.

House Races


Texas 32nd District - Primary March 3, 2020

Democrat Collin Allred flipped this suburban Dallas district with a 7-point victory over then-GOP Rep. Pete Sessions. Hillary Clinton carried it by 2 points in 2016, after Mitt Romney won it by 15 four years earlier.

Iowa 4th District - Primary June 2, 2020

Controversial GOP Rep. Steve King defeated Democrat J.D. Scholten by only 3 points in 2018. Scholten is running again, but he will have a shot at a rematch in the general only if King survives a primary challenge — perhaps his strongest nomination fight in years.

Minnesota 7th District - Primary August 11, 2020

Longtime Democratic Rep. Collin Peterson still hasn’t announced whether he’ll seek a 16th term from a western Minnesota district racing away from his party. If Peterson retires, Republicans will be favored to pick up a district Donald Trump carried by 31 points in 2016.

Alaska - Primary August 18, 2020

GOP Rep. Don Young, the dean of the House, faces a rematch from Alyse Galvin. Young defeated Galvin by 7 points in 2018.

Maine 2nd District - Primary June 9, 2020

Democratic Rep. Jared Golden’s 2018 victory came thanks to the state’s ranked-choice voting scheme, which allowed him to overtake then-GOP Rep. Bruce Poliquin despite trailing slightly in first-place votes. Golden is likely to face a stiff challenge in 2020, especially if Donald Trump, who won the district by 10 points, makes a play for the seat’s one electoral vote.

New York 22nd District - Primary June 23, 2020

A potential rematch: Republican former Rep. Claudia Tenney wants another shot at Democrat Anthony Brindisi, two years after Brindisi beat her by 2 points. But this time, Donald Trump will be on the ballot too, after carrying the district by 16 points in 2016.

Governor's Races


Montana - Primary June 2, 2020

Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock is term-limited, but Democrats have controlled the governorship in Helena for 16 years.

North Carolina - Primary March 3, 2020

Democrat Roy Cooper outperformed his party's presidential and Senate nominees in 2016 to win a narrow victory. Expect all three races to be close again in the swing state.

Missouri - Primary August 4, 2020

Republican Mike Parson became governor in 2018 after Eric Greitens resigned. He’s seeking a full term in 2020. The leading Democratic candidate is State Auditor Nicole Galloway.


Ratings and analysis by POLITICO Pro Campaigns Editor Steven Shepard.

See something wrong with our data? Email interactives@politico.com.

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