Introducing POLITICO’s 2020 Election Forecast: ratings for every national contest, from all 538 votes in the Electoral College, down to the 435 House districts — and everything in between.
We’ll be updating our rating throughout the year.
Alabama - Primary on March 3, 2020
Democrat Doug Jones is the most vulnerable senator from either party up in 2020. But Republicans first have to navigate a crowded primary field that includes former Sen. Jeff Sessions and the man Jones beat in the 2017 special election: defrocked former judge Roy Moore.
Georgia - Primary May 19, 2020
GOP Sen. David Perdue begins his first reelection campaign as a favorite, especially against a muddled Democratic field with no clear frontrunner.
Colorado - Primary June 30, 2020
Cory Gardner is Republicans' most vulnerable Senate incumbent and faces headwinds at the top of the ticket in a blue-leaning state. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee endorsed former Gov. John Hickenlooper, who still faces competitors in the primary.
North Carolina - Primary March 3, 2020
GOP Sen. Thom Tillis, facing a self-funding primary challenger, is embracing President Donald Trump after getting crosswise with the president over Trump's emergency declaration to build a wall along the southern border. Cal Cunningham, a former state legislator, is backed by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee but hasn't cleared the primary field.
Maine - Primary June 9, 2019
Republican Susan Collins has seen her vote share increase in each of her four Senate elections, culminating in 67 percent in 2014, when Democrats mounted only a nominal challenge. That won't be the case in 2020, with state House Speaker Sara Gideon preparing a strong bid. With the state's blue tint, Collins likely will need some crossover votes in order to win a fifth term.
Arizona - Primary August 4, 2020
Republican Martha McSally became the first Republican to lose a Senate race in Arizona since 1988 — only to then score an appointment to the state's other Senate seat. She will face Democrat Mark Kelly, the husband of former Rep. Gabby Giffords (D-Ariz.) and a prolific fundraiser. The special election in Arizona could go down as the most expensive Senate race in 2020.
Texas 32nd District - Primary March 3, 2020
Democrat Collin Allred flipped this suburban Dallas district with a 7-point victory over then-GOP Rep. Pete Sessions. Hillary Clinton carried it by 2 points in 2016, after Mitt Romney won it by 15 four years earlier.
Iowa 4th District - Primary June 2, 2020
Controversial GOP Rep. Steve King defeated Democrat J.D. Scholten by only 3 points in 2018. Scholten is running again, but he will have a shot at a rematch in the general only if King survives a primary challenge — perhaps his strongest nomination fight in years.
Minnesota 7th District - Primary August 11, 2020
Longtime Democratic Rep. Collin Peterson still hasn’t announced whether he’ll seek a 16th term from a western Minnesota district racing away from his party. If Peterson retires, Republicans will be favored to pick up a district Donald Trump carried by 31 points in 2016.
Alaska - Primary August 18, 2020
GOP Rep. Don Young, the dean of the House, faces a rematch from Alyse Galvin. Young defeated Galvin by 7 points in 2018.
Maine 2nd District - Primary June 9, 2020
Democratic Rep. Jared Golden’s 2018 victory came thanks to the state’s ranked-choice voting scheme, which allowed him to overtake then-GOP Rep. Bruce Poliquin despite trailing slightly in first-place votes. Golden is likely to face a stiff challenge in 2020, especially if Donald Trump, who won the district by 10 points, makes a play for the seat’s one electoral vote.
New York 22nd District - Primary June 23, 2020
A potential rematch: Republican former Rep. Claudia Tenney wants another shot at Democrat Anthony Brindisi, two years after Brindisi beat her by 2 points. But this time, Donald Trump will be on the ballot too, after carrying the district by 16 points in 2016.
Montana - Primary June 2, 2020
Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock is term-limited, but Democrats have controlled the governorship in Helena for 16 years.
North Carolina - Primary March 3, 2020
Democrat Roy Cooper outperformed his party's presidential and Senate nominees in 2016 to win a narrow victory. Expect all three races to be close again in the swing state.
Missouri - Primary August 4, 2020
Republican Mike Parson became governor in 2018 after Eric Greitens resigned. He’s seeking a full term in 2020. The leading Democratic candidate is State Auditor Nicole Galloway.
Ratings and analysis by POLITICO Pro Campaigns Editor Steven Shepard.
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