What American politics will look like after 2020 is anyone’s guess. But Senior Elections Editor, Steven Shepard is taking his best shot.
The latest from POLITICO’s 2020 Election Forecast: Ratings for every national contest, from the 538 Electoral College votes to the 435 House districts — and everything in between.
Wisconsin -10 electoral votes
Trump became the first Republican to win Wisconsin since 1984, and all indications point to another close race in 2020.
Arizona - 11 electoral votes
Arizona is a full-fledged electoral battleground in 2020, even though Republicans have carried the state in five straight presidential races. In 2016, Donald Trump won only 48.7 percent of the vote though, and Democrats now think they have a shot to pick off the state's 11 electoral votes. Something to watch: In the 2018 Senate race, Republican Martha McSally led the vote count on Election Day, but late-tabulated ballots put Democrat Kyrsten Sinema over the top. A protracted count is possible again in 2020.
Nebraska’s 2nd District - 1 electoral vote
Democrats called the 2nd District “Obamaha,” after the Illinoisan swiped an electoral vote there in 2008. Mitt Romney took it back by a 7-point margin in 2012, but it was again close in 2016. Trump won it by only a little more than 2 points.
Florida - 29 electoral votes
Florida is the toss-up to end all toss-ups. Trump won it by 1.2 points. Obama won it by 2.8 points and 0.9 points in 2008 and 2012, respectively. Republicans are on something of a statewide winning streak over the past few years, but it's hard to see a scenario in which either candidate wins Florida by a sizable margin.
Pennsylvania - 20 electoral votes
Polls show Joe Biden with a 5-10 point lead in Pennsylvania — the largest swing state other than Florida.
Michigan - 16 electoral votes
As Joe Biden has surged to a national lead, most high-quality polls show him with a significant lead in Michigan.
Alabama - Doug Jones (D) vs. Tommy Tuberville (R)
Democrat Doug Jones, who faces former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville, is the most vulnerable senator from either party up in 2020.
Arizona - Martha McSally (R) vs. Mark Kelly (D)
Republican Martha McSally became the first Republican to lose a Senate race in Arizona since 1988 — only to then score an appointment to the state's other Senate seat. She faces Democrat Mark Kelly, the husband of former Rep. Gabby Giffords (D-Ariz.) and a prolific fundraiser.
Colorado - Cory Gardner (R) vs. John Hickenlooper (D)
GOP Sen. Cory Gardner's reelection campaign has always been perilous in a state trending toward Democrats. Former Gov. John Hickenlooper has the lead.
Georgia - David Perdue (R) vs. Jon Ossoff (D)
Democrat Jon Ossoff is running close with GOP Sen. David Perdue in the polls — but if neither candidate earns a majority in November, the two will advance to a January 2021 runoff.
Maine - Susan Collins (R) vs. Sara Gideon (D)
Maine is home to the most hotly contested Senate race in the country. Democrats think they have GOP Sen. Susan Collins on the ropes, while Republicans are convinced Collins' independent streak will survive the Trump era.
An avalanche of early Democratic spending has GOP Sen. Susan Collins, who won reelection with 67 percent of the vote in 2014, in a toss-up race with Democrat Sara Gideon.
North Carolina - Thom Tillis (R) vs. Cal Cunningham (D)
Democrat Cal Cunningham has consistently led GOP Sen. Thom Tillis, who lags behind Trump in polls. He needs Republican voters to come home in order to win a second term.
Alaska's At-Large District - Don Young (R) vs. Alyse Galvin (I)
GOP Rep. Don Young, the dean of the House, faces a rematch from Alyse Galvin. Young defeated Galvin by 7 points in 2018 — but polls suggest the race could be closer this year.
Iowa's District 4 - J.D. Scholten (D) vs. Randy Feenstra (R)
State Sen. Randy Feenstra's defeat of GOP Rep. Steve King in the primary will help Republicans retain this Northwest Iowa seat.
Maine's District 2 - Jared Golden (D) vs. Dale Crafts (R)
Republicans nominated state Sen. Dale Crafts to take on freshman Democratic Rep. Jared Golden. Golden ousted then-Rep. Bruce Poliquin in 2018 thanks to the state's ranked-choice voting scheme, but Golden and Crafts will be the only two candidates on the ballot this year.
Minnesota’s District 7 - Collin Peterson (D) vs. Michelle Fischbach (R)
Longtime Democratic Rep. Collin Peterson chose to seek reelection, despite the fact that his rural district voted for President Trump by 31 points in 2016. Republicans think their candidate, former Lt. Gov. Michelle Fischbach, will finally be the one to send Peterson packing after some increasingly close calls.
New York’s District 22 - Anthony Brindisi (D) vs. Claudia Tenney (R)
A rematch in one of the Democrats' most vulnerable seats: Republican former Rep. Claudia Tenney wants another shot at Democrat Anthony Brindisi, two years after Brindisi defeated her by 2 points. But this time, Donald Trump will be on the ballot too, after carrying the district by 16 points in 2016.
Texas’s District 32 - Colin Allred (D) vs. Genevieve Collins (R)
Democrat Colin Allred flipped this suburban Dallas district with a 7-point victory over then-GOP Rep. Pete Sessions. Hillary Clinton carried it by 2 points in 2016, after Mitt Romney won it by 15 four years earlier.
Missouri - Mike Parson (R) vs. Nicole Galloway (D)
Republican Mike Parson became governor in 2018 after Eric Greitens resigned. He’s seeking a full term in 2020. Democratic state Auditor Nicole Galloway is running a strong campaign.
Montana - Mike Cooney (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R)
Both parties are gearing up for a competitive race to replace term-limited Gov. Steve Bullock.
North Carolina - Roy Cooper (D) vs. Dan Forest (R)
Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper's approval ratings rose with his handling of the coronavirus pandemic, and he's now the favorite to beat GOP Lt. Gov. Dan Forest.
Ratings and analysis by POLITICO Pro Campaigns Editor Steven Shepard.
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