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As voters across go to the polls from March to September to vote in the primaries, policy professionals are watching and analyzing each primary contest to glean insight into which issues will tip the scales in the general elections. Over the past decades states and congressional districts are increasingly more dominated by one party or the other. As a result, primaries are a time voters have real choices and can shape a party’s national platform.

Why are primaries more important than ever?

Primary elections are very important to keep track of because they give voters a chance to choose who the nominees will be for general elections. Although they are often not given as much attention as general elections, they can be the most consequential elections. The primary votes are barometers for parties and candidates to determine the public’s sentiments on key issues such as education, healthcare, the economy, and more. The outcomes of primary contests can often determine who will have a large advantage in general elections.

Types of primaries: Close, Partial Close, Open, Partial Open, etc.

There are several types of primaries, and the laws surrounding them can be quite complex. Primaries are categorized into different buckets: open, closed, partially closed, or top-two. We’ll break down the differences and their possible political implications:

  1. Open: Generally, states that do not ask voters to choose parties on their voter registration forms are open primary states. Voters choose privately to vote and do not have to affiliate with that party. This allows voters to vote across party lines. While some say this gives more flexibility, some argue that the system makes it harder for the parties to nominate candidates. Open primary states include Alabama, Arkansas, Michigan, Montana, Texas, Wisconsin, Virginia, and more.
  2. Closed: Voters participating in closed primaries must be registered party members. They will also typically affiliate themselves with a party on their registration application. Therefore, this system means that independent or unaffiliated voters will be excluded in participating in closed primaries. States that have closed primaries are Delaware, Maryland, New York, Florida, Nevada, Oregon, Kentucky, New Mexico, and Pennsylvania.
  3. Partially Closed: States choose whether or not to allow unaffiliated to participate in their nominating contests. This gives parties more flexibility about which voters to include but can leave room for uncertainty. States with partially closed primaries include Connecticut, Idaho, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Dakota, and Utah.
  4. Top-Two: California and Washington use a top-two primary format, meaning that all candidates are on the same ballot and the top-two vote winners in each rate advance to the general election—regardless of party.

Upcoming primaries

The first round of primaries started on March 1st in Texas. They will continue all the way to September, download the POLITICO Primaries Calendar to help you stay on track.

How to stay ahead

POLITICO Pro keeps professionals informed from primaries to November elections and beyond with dedicated analyses and articles surrounding midterm elections, primaries, and how they affect different policy areas. Subscribers also have access to the Campaign Races Dashboard, where they can access the latest election info and election outcomes through an easy-to-navigate interface. Check out POLITICO’s ratings and predictions.

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It’s time – Midterm Elections are heating up. In May voters in 14 states go to the polls to decide on the nominees in the contest in November. This means a constant flow of information, cluttered news, and several swing-state races to keep up with. As a policy professional, you need election insights so you can forecast outcomes and plan ahead.

Why should I keep up with Midterms?

Every policy area you track will be affected by the midterms, including taxes, health care, technology, economics, energy, labor, national security and much more. The majority in Congress is at stake – and the current forecast for control of Congress leans Republican. Now is the time to tune in to navigate the potential policy outcomes for you and your stakeholders.

What issues should I care about?

The last two years have made this midterm election cycle more important than ever. Some of the major issues that you can expect to see discussed are inflation, reproductive rights, Covid-19 and expansion of government services. You need clear insight into how the midterm elections will affect major policy areas. With so much to keep up with, we’ve created more Pro-exclusive content to make Pros’ lives easier and dive deep into issues that matter to them.

Pro Analysis is an existing feature for Premium subscribers that allows you to get up-to-speed quickly on emerging issues with three-page snapshots on what’s at stake, key players, and next steps so you don’t have to sift through information. During Midterms this year starting in March, our dedicated experts have been publishing a series of new analysis pieces that will detail how midterms will affect every policy area including economy, education, taxes, environment, immigration, and more.

Read the latest Pro Analysis on how the stalled Build Back Better package and the impending expiration of Affordable Care Act tax credit will impact Democrats’ midterm prospects.

Check out the agenda for upcoming dates and topics ahead.

How to use data visualizations to simply complex issues?

In today’s information-overload world, combining the craft of data visualization and the art of graphic design can help you communicate complex information more accurately and effectively. One great way of using data visualizations is to include them in your presentations to illustrate key races and their impact on policies. See an example of a PRO exclusive DataPoint here.

During this midterm election season, Pro premium subscribers have access to visualizations for the races from the primaries all the way to post-general elections, including graphics around polling, redistricting, policy issues, and swing districts. Here’s a sneak peek of some of the topics and calendar ahead.

2022 midterm topics: redistricting, campaigns, election results, new congress

With midterm elections being so crucial this year, POLITICO Pro helps teams stay one step ahead. See everything Premium subscribers receive here.

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Over the past 40 years, the average time for the Senate to reach a final vote on a Supreme Court justice nominee has been 72 days — nearly twice the time left before the 2020 general election.

The modern process of confirming Supreme Court justices has three major stages: First, the president chooses and announces their nominee for the court. Second, the nominee is exhaustively vetted by the Senate Judiciary Committee. In the final stage, the whole Senate debates and votes to confirm or reject the nominee.

Historically, senators have avoided filibustering the confirmation process, and a change to Senate rules in 2017 effectively ended the practice by allowing debate to end with a simple majority vote. As a result, the party that controls the Senate can complete the entire process without any votes from the minority party — and in recent years, confirmation votes have increasingly fallen along party lines.

Here are the steps in the Senate process to confirm a Supreme Court Justice

1. Initial research on nominee

Prior to a hearing, Judiciary committee members review information about the nominee from several sources, including a detailed questionnaire for the nominee drafted by the committee.

At this stage, the nominee will typically meet individually with members of the committee and other interested senators in their offices.

2. Hearing before the Senate Judiciary Committee

The committee will eventually hold a public hearing to receive the nominee’s testimony. Typically, the hearing is held approximately 40 days after the nomination is first made.

Senators ask questions in multiple sessions spanning four or five days, with the option to hold additional hearings for controversial nominees.

3. Final report from the committee

Approximately one week after the hearing, the committee meets in an open session to determine its recommendation for the Senate.

Depending on how the members vote, the nominee may be reported “favorably” or “unfavorably.” Regardless of the outcome, the committee typically allows the nomination to move to a full Senate vote.

4. Majority Leader sets schedule for debate

Typically the Majority Leader consults with the minority leader to determine the timing and length of the proceedings, so that the process can begin via unanimous consent.

If unanimous consent cannot be secured, the majority leader can make a filibuster-proof motion to begin the process.

5. Senators debate on the floor

Unless the minority party agrees to a shorter schedule, the nomination will be debated for a minimum of 30 hours on the Senate floor.

Each senator who takes the floor gives a speech explaining why they are voting to confirm or reject.

6. Full Senate vote for confirmation

Once debate ends, senators may vote on the nominee. Since 1967, every Senate vote to confirm a Supreme Court justice has been a roll call vote — meaning each senator’s vote is formally recorded. Historically, most confirmation votes have resulted in an overwhelming majority in favor. However, in recent years, party-line votes with a substantial minority voting to reject have become more common.

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This post is excerpted from a DataPoint infographic that was initially made available to POLITICO Pro Premium subscribers on September 22, 2020.

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Ranked-choice voting allows citizens to rank their candidate preferences on an election ballot instead of voting for a single candidate. If one candidate does not initially win a majority, competitors with the fewest votes are eliminated from the race and their voters’ second choices are applied to the tallies of the remaining candidates until one candidate achieves a majority.

According to the group FairVote, two states have 2020 ballot initiatives to install a statewide ranked-choice system. Alaska’s Ballot Measure 2 would replace partisan primaries with an open primary in which the top four finishers advance to a ranked-choice general election, while Massachusetts’ Question 2 would retain partisan primaries but implement ranked-choice voting in both primaries and the general election starting in 2022.

Maine’s state Supreme Court voted on Sept. 8 to allow ranked-choice voting to appear on 2020 presidential election ballots but has not decided whether a ballot initiative challenging the use of ranked-choice voting will actually keep voters from selecting candidates that way.

Which states have ranked-choice voting?

How Ranked-Choice Voting Works

1. Voters rank their candidate preferences on ballots

Voters can choose to rank candidates, indicating on a ballot which person is their first choice, second choice, third choice, etc., for election to office.

2. First-choice candidate votes on ballots are tallied

If one of the candidates receives more than 50 percent of the first-preference votes, that candidate wins the election.

3. Second-choice votes of losing candidates are distributed among winning candidates

If no candidate receives more than 50 percent of the votes, the candidates with the lowest percentages of votes are eliminated and their supporters’ second-choice selections are allocated to the remaining candidates on the ballot. This vote-redistribution process continues until one candidate reaches over 50 percent of the cast votes.

Pros and Cons of Ranked-Choice Voting

PROS

Could ensure that a winning candidate has a majority of votes

In elections in which there are several candidates, ranked-choice voting allows voters to support like-minded competitors to defeat an unfavored candidate. Fractured opposition can result in an unfavored candidate winning an election even if most voters oppose them.

Voters’ ballots count, even if their first choice loses

Even if your first-choice candidate loses, your vote still counts toward electing a candidate of your choice.

CONS

Voters’ choices may not count if all of them are eliminated

If a voter does not rank all of the candidates’ names on a ballot, leaving some selections blank, and if all of the voter’s choices are eliminated, that could result in the ballot not being counted at all.

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This post is excerpted from a DataPoint infographic that was initially made available to POLITICO Pro Premium subscribers on September 10, 2020.

If you would like to learn more about POLITICO Pro Premium, you can visit this page.