Archives for May 2022

The Republican party is widely favored to win back at least one chamber of Congress at the start of the 2022 midterm cycle. But the renewed debates over abortion rights and gun control could give Democrats the much-needed midterm voter turnout boost.

In New Jersey the backlash to the Supreme Court’s decision on abortion could give the embattled two-term Democrat representative, Tom Malinowski, a chance to save his seat. Moreover, the Supreme Court decision also increases the stakes in state level races from governor to attorney general. Joe Cunningham, a former Democratic congressman for South Carolina, a reliable red state, is placing abortion at the center of his bid for the governor’s seat in the Palmetto State.

Even though abortion rights is a top issue on campaign ad spending, the economy and inflation remain key concerns for majority of the voters. Campaign Pro’s briefing on May 12 discussed how overturning Roe v. Wade could affect the midterms. Pro subscribers will have opportunities to hear directly from POLITICO reporters on key midterm policies throughout the election cycle and ask questions. The POLITICO Pro team will host the next midterms briefing, Campaign Pro Midterms Outlook, for subscribers on July 14.

In the wake of mass shootings in Uvalde, TX and Buffalo, New York, there’s an increasing chorus in Congress and in state legislatures to support stricter gun control legislations. Most of the uptick in support is among Republican and Independent voters. Campaign Pro’s latest poll digest breaks down the poll numbers and explains how this shifting public sentiment may impact the upcoming primaries. The polling digest is one of the five exclusive daily campaign deep dives from POLITICO Pro. These deep dives explore the inner workings of midterm races, fundraising, staffing, and advertising.

For Pro Analysis subscribers, the newest Pro Data Analysis on gun rights lobbying shows the trends of lobbying spending from 1998 to March 2022 and the five groups spent approximately $1 million or more in 2021. DataPoints are data visualizations that explain complex policy topics and trends.

DataPoint on gun rights lobbying

POLITICO Pro equips policy professionals with exclusive coverage, in-depth analysis, and a redesigned Campaign Races Dashboard to help you see beyond the horizon and map a sound strategy for what’s next. Learn more.

As voters across go to the polls from March to September to vote in the primaries, policy professionals are watching and analyzing each primary contest to glean insight into which issues will tip the scales in the general elections. Over the past decades states and congressional districts are increasingly more dominated by one party or the other. As a result, primaries are a time voters have real choices and can shape a party’s national platform.

Why are primaries more important than ever?

Primary elections are very important to keep track of because they give voters a chance to choose who the nominees will be for general elections. Although they are often not given as much attention as general elections, they can be the most consequential elections. The primary votes are barometers for parties and candidates to determine the public’s sentiments on key issues such as education, healthcare, the economy, and more. The outcomes of primary contests can often determine who will have a large advantage in general elections.

Types of primaries: Close, Partial Close, Open, Partial Open, etc.

There are several types of primaries, and the laws surrounding them can be quite complex. Primaries are categorized into different buckets: open, closed, partially closed, or top-two. We’ll break down the differences and their possible political implications:

  1. Open: Generally, states that do not ask voters to choose parties on their voter registration forms are open primary states. Voters choose privately to vote and do not have to affiliate with that party. This allows voters to vote across party lines. While some say this gives more flexibility, some argue that the system makes it harder for the parties to nominate candidates. Open primary states include Alabama, Arkansas, Michigan, Montana, Texas, Wisconsin, Virginia, and more.
  2. Closed: Voters participating in closed primaries must be registered party members. They will also typically affiliate themselves with a party on their registration application. Therefore, this system means that independent or unaffiliated voters will be excluded in participating in closed primaries. States that have closed primaries are Delaware, Maryland, New York, Florida, Nevada, Oregon, Kentucky, New Mexico, and Pennsylvania.
  3. Partially Closed: States choose whether or not to allow unaffiliated to participate in their nominating contests. This gives parties more flexibility about which voters to include but can leave room for uncertainty. States with partially closed primaries include Connecticut, Idaho, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Dakota, and Utah.
  4. Top-Two: California and Washington use a top-two primary format, meaning that all candidates are on the same ballot and the top-two vote winners in each rate advance to the general election—regardless of party.

Upcoming primaries

The first round of primaries started on March 1st in Texas. They will continue all the way to September, download the POLITICO Primaries Calendar to help you stay on track.

How to stay ahead

POLITICO Pro keeps professionals informed from primaries to November elections and beyond with dedicated analyses and articles surrounding midterm elections, primaries, and how they affect different policy areas. Subscribers also have access to the Campaign Races Dashboard, where they can access the latest election info and election outcomes through an easy-to-navigate interface. Check out POLITICO’s ratings and predictions.

With recent elections in Ohio and Indiana now behind us, the 2022 midterm primaries are in full swing. With a third of the U.S. Senate and the entire House up for election, the outcomes of the 2022 midterm elections will determine the control of Congress. Furthermore, 36 states are holding gubernatorial races this November. You as a policy professional need powerful tools to keep track of high-stakes races, primary upsets, and political drama that could impact your legislative agenda.

How to keep track of all the races?

Every policy professional needs to keep a close eye on swing districts and dynamic issues that will influence the outcomes of the midterms. POLITICO Pro has expanded its editorial coverage and redesigned the Campaign Races Dashboard to help Pro subscribers stay ahead of this election season. Pro subscribers have access to real-time intelligence, expert analysis, and policy tools through one platform that helps subscribers see the big picture, home in on what’s important, and stay ahead.

The Texas primary on March 1 kicked off the 2022 midterm election season. The midterms picked up again on May 3 with Ohio and Indiana primaries. A dozen states hold primaries in May, including North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Alabama.

On May 2, 2022, POLITICO Pro rolled out new enhancements to the Campaign Races Dashboard. The new dashboard features 50-state House and Senate map views that help subscribers keep an eye on all federal races, vulnerable members, swing districts, and the issues that will help define the upcoming 118th Congress. Users can quickly locate incumbent and challenger candidate bios and their party affiliations through the dashboard. Primary election results, campaign expenditures, and fundraising data are updated throughout the election season.

The interactive maps also feature race rating information, forecasted by POLITICO’s campaign experts, that reflects the current trajectories of federal races. The Senate map also features two separate views for incumbents and POLITICO’s forecasted winners.

POLITICO Pro campaign races dashboard
POLITICO Pro campaign races dashboard
POLITICO Pro campaign races dashboard
POLITICO Pro campaign races dashboard

What are the key issues, and how will they influence elections?

Campaigns News (available only to Pro subscribers) is a one-stop source for all the latest election coverage and analysis of the news and issues at stake to help policy professionals understand the impact of election outcomes. Several key issues, from the economy to health care costs, may determine whether the Democrats can hold onto their control of Congress or Republicans take over. Here are some of the topics that PRO subscribers are reading:

Campaign advertising
TV ads digest: Abortion ads hit the airwaves

Primaries
7 ways Tuesday’s primaries could shake the 2022 election

Business
Crypto enters primary session with Ohio victories

Economy
Fed launches fresh assault on inflation in new era for economy

How will redistricting influence the 2022 midterms?

Redistricting is the process of redrawing congressional and state legislative boundaries. It happens every ten years after a census and is mandated by the U.S. Constitution. Redistricting aims to create districts of equal populations and ensure equal representation. Final Congressional district maps are still being determined in New York, New Hampshire, Missouri, and Kansas. POLITICO’s interactive Redistricting feature provides detailed analyses of what new district lines could mean for the balance of Congress over the next decade.

The midterms this year will take place against the backdrop of inflation fears, an ongoing global pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war, debate over abortion rights, and other contentious domestic issues. Subscribers of POLITICO Pro have a new interactive dashboard and exclusive election coverage and analysis from the nation’s top nonpartisan newsroom to help them navigate upcoming races. Learn more.

It’s time – Midterm Elections are heating up. In May voters in 14 states go to the polls to decide on the nominees in the contest in November. This means a constant flow of information, cluttered news, and several swing-state races to keep up with. As a policy professional, you need election insights so you can forecast outcomes and plan ahead.

Why should I keep up with Midterms?

Every policy area you track will be affected by the midterms, including taxes, health care, technology, economics, energy, labor, national security and much more. The majority in Congress is at stake – and the current forecast for control of Congress leans Republican. Now is the time to tune in to navigate the potential policy outcomes for you and your stakeholders.

What issues should I care about?

The last two years have made this midterm election cycle more important than ever. Some of the major issues that you can expect to see discussed are inflation, reproductive rights, Covid-19 and expansion of government services. You need clear insight into how the midterm elections will affect major policy areas. With so much to keep up with, we’ve created more Pro-exclusive content to make Pros’ lives easier and dive deep into issues that matter to them.

Pro Analysis is an existing feature for Pro Analysis subscribers that allows you to get up-to-speed quickly on emerging issues with three-page snapshots on what’s at stake, key players, and next steps so you don’t have to sift through information. During Midterms this year starting in March, our dedicated experts have been publishing a series of new analysis pieces that will detail how midterms will affect every policy area including economy, education, taxes, environment, immigration, and more.

Read the latest Pro Analysis on how the stalled Build Back Better package and the impending expiration of Affordable Care Act tax credit will impact Democrats’ midterm prospects.

How to use data visualizations to simply complex issues?

In today’s information-overload world, combining the craft of data visualization and the art of graphic design can help you communicate complex information more accurately and effectively. One great way of using data visualizations is to include them in your presentations to illustrate key races and their impact on policies.

During this midterm election season, Pro premium subscribers have access to visualizations for the races from the primaries all the way to post-general elections, including graphics around polling, redistricting, policy issues, and swing districts. Here’s a sneak peek of some of the topics and calendar ahead.

2022 midterm topics: redistricting, campaigns, election results, new congress

With midterm elections being so crucial this year, POLITICO Pro helps teams stay one step ahead. See everything Pro Analysis subscribers receive here.

The 2022 midterm elections are gaining momentum! And as political parties and campaigns prepare for a showdown that will determine the control of Congress, you as a policy professional need to know what’s happening, what’s changing, and how elections could impact your legislative agenda.

What are midterms?

Although midterm elections often receive less attention than presidential contests, their outcomes have a significant political impact nationally and on the state level. Every two years, all the seats in the House of Representative and about a third of the seats in the Senate are up for reelection. When these biennial contests happen in the middle of a presidential term, they are called “midterms”.

How many seats are up for election in 2022?

35 Senate seats and all 435 House districts are up for election on November 8, 2022. There are also 36 gubernatorial races and many other local races. It will be a busy year ahead.

How to keep track of all the races?

The Texas primary on March 1 kicked off the first primary of the 2022 midterm election season, and May and June will offer many other races to watch. Every policy professional needs to keep a close eye on swing districts and the dynamic issues that will influence the outcomes of the midterms as Pro subscribers can. Subscribers have access to real-time intelligence, expert analysis, and policy tools through one platform which helps them see the big picture, home in on what’s important, and stay ahead. POLITICO Pro has created a robust editorial plan and redesigned the Campaign Races Dashboard to help them stay ahead of this election season.

In addition to race insights, the new and improved Campaign Races Dashboard helps them stay current on the accelerating election cycle. It features a 50-state map which helps them keep an eye on all the federal races, vulnerable members, swing districts, a list of all the U.S. House and Senate races on the ballot for that state, and issues that will help define the future 118th Congress. Incumbent candidates, challengers, and their party affiliations can be easy to track through the dashboard, and is powered by the latest candidate and fundraising data throughout the election season.

POLITICO Pro campaign races dashboard
POLITICO Pro campaign races dashboard
POLITICO Pro campaign races dashboard

What are the key issues, and how will they influence elections?

Several key issues, from economy to health care costs, may determine whether the Democrats can hold on to their control of Congress, or Republicans take over. Campaign News (available only to Pro subscribers) is a one-stop source for all the latest election news, and analysis of the news and issues at stake help policy professionals understand the impact of election outcomes. Here are some of the topics that PRO subscribers are reading:

Climate Change
What happened to Biden’s Climate Agenda?

Education
3 education takeaways from State of the Union

Health Care
Pro Briefing Takeaways: Outlook for Covid-related agenda

Employment
`Unlike any other secretary’: Marty Walsh’s hands-on approach to settling labor disputes

How will redistricting influence the 2022 midterms?

Redistricting is the process of redrawing congressional and state legislative boundaries. It happens every ten years after a census and is mandated by the U.S. Constitution. Redistricting aims to create districts of equal populations and ensure equal representation. POLITICO’s interactive Redistricting feature is where you can find detailed analyses on what new district lines mean for the balance of Congress over the next decade.

The Midterms this year will be an exciting time. In the coming months, Pro subscribers will have even more dashboard features to help them navigate upcoming campaign races. Learn more.